Octavian ----- “Just wondering?” ---- I want to reply with your words. I expect your are a serious person. So I will try to answer you. Bora Bora is a great location. It is beautiful unique in the world. The task for our Seasteading-the-Movie film investor is to find the best location. Bora Bora may be the most wonderful place on th face of the earth ---- but is it the best place for a sea stead? Imagine we are partners in the business of finding new locations for CVS. There is a “threshold” criteria. It is 35,000 cars per day. More cars is better fewer cars is doubtful. So I fully understand there is no CVS in the watts of Bora Bora. So what about a floating Marriott, Hilton or other hotel? Say Leading Hotels of the World? Bora Bora seems like a great location. Do you agree? The cost of a hotel feasibility analysis is about $20,000. Feasibility is based on percentage of occupancy, seasonality, room rate etc. I am qualified and have done this analysis for a Bora Bora sea stead hotel. Has TSI? My objective here in this exercise is only to identify the best location to have the movie “Grand Opening!” So let me compare Bora Bora (a second air stop from Tahiti after a 10-hour flight from Los Angeles ) with a similar second air stop from a 4-hour flight Miami for Cay Sal. Polynesia has 200,000 visitors each year. Miami has 20 million. If the seasetead is a concept that appeals to leaguer visitors ---- fishing, aqua-culture education, dining, spa — Cay Sal is a better location. How about Cartagena? Since a majority of visitors to Polynesia are from north America — notice Cartagena is measurably closer. — So pick your movie theater location — 30-minutes or 4-hours. ---- Polynesia looses and Cartagena wins. ted
Larry G — You raise the essential point. The income qualification of the people on the sea stead. I myself see these as working remote from conventional employment centers, the able to support a moderate lifestyle. I see this as digital nomads earning $50,000 / year doing online writing and graphic design + expat IT professionals earning $100,000 / year doing remote “start-up” work. In addition there are ocean-based aqua-culture people, artists, authors and staff. The concept is sufficiently “exotic” to attract a few wealthy seasonal residential owners. If you are not aware of the Arts District in Miami — please search online. It shows that a simple artful idea can prevail over time. Ted
Just googled it. looks like a successful movement. Do many “normal people” (for lack of a better term) actually live in the district or is it dependent upon wealthy people from outside to spend money there and working class stiffs from neighboring districts to flip the burgers and sweep the streets? It looks like apartments advertising for the district are quite expensive.. In contrast to the Studio-/1BR 1 bath apartments listed for rent on that site for $1500-$1800/month I pay $1547/month to OWN a 3 BR 2.5 bath home on .2 acre in a very nice suburb in Vancouver WA.
I am put in mind of San Francisco, struggling to provide affordable housing to the middle class, and lower class/minimum wage folks struggling to find time for 3 hour (each way) commutes from outlying communities to work at fast food jobs in the city. I’m put in mind of financial & business districts that have crime problems at night because they become abandoned by legit people after 5 pm due to little or no mixed-use or housing.
From a social aspect, (never mid the financial) I wouldn’t want to create such a dichotomy between white collar residents and peons from outside. It is distasteful to me. How do you address this concern?
I think that is do-able to form a base population. There are people in those white collar categories who would be attracted to the place. There just needs to be a sprinkling of affordable housing for people in the trades, service industry, and fishing etc.
The occasional celebrity or wealthy seasonal resident can certainly help boost a local economy as well. As long as it isn’t the only demographic.
Larry G — Again I agree with you 100%. There are possibly 50 cohabitants - loving others who are not employed in the IT industry, They write novels, free-lance online or work part time in the hotel front desk and shops. They make less — say $25,000 / year. As you know there is the economic notion of “primary” employment — in this case the aquaculture and IT — and “secondary” employment generated by the needs of the primary. — This is the “multiple.” you hear the new media spam of. Since we are at this here is an additional thought. The lodging — Yacht Club / Marina is not financially feasible. I mean to save should one do the $20,000 analysis I propose TSI or others might do (I have done) — The result is negative even at Bora Bora ---- The purpose of the lodging is not to make money. It is at best a “break even.” It is to provide a “lifestyle” amenity to the residents. Ted
We can’t really talk about comparing FP with the Marinea project as they were meant to do two different things. TSI is constructing a floating island, if that island was to be self sustaining then all the questions about logistics would certainly limit the success of that project. However, TSI was invited by the Polonaise government to help develop away to continue their existence as their islands disappear under the sea. Their market will be the same as it is now, mostly tourist with an above average income. It can change over time but even the silicon valley folks don’t want to spend what it will take to change the economy of the area in anything resembling quick.
Marinea is not under some other nations umbrella so we have to do it right the first time. We are assembling adventurers, entrepreneurs, business professionals and libertarians to make a community. Utilizing existing equipment much of Marinea has already been well tested.
TSI is a top down operation, while Marinea is a ground up, it depends upon lots of people doing just a little bit.
Hitting almost every motivator, I’d like to believe that Marinea is worth the investment.
I’m not sure I understand what you mean in this part.
Small cash cow hotels may yield a max of 14% ROI but otherwise resort hotels and destination hotels are a long term investment.
Take McDonalds (or Starbucks) for instance whose biz model is colonizing the heat maps (! Gravity models) Amenta is talking about: do you believe they make more selling burgers or consolidating real estate?
what is the ROI for cruise ships? Breaking even doesn’t begin to describe it. how well before are they planned?
Can this situation be better for seasteads?
Herre is another thought: – Which is the best location for a sea stead in Polynesia? This seems to be a simple question after 6-months after the MOU. When I was in direct communication with Randy at TSI – He shared the target location was within the reef of Papeete. I did to agree based on economic reasons. This was a few months ago. I am not certain where TSI might be considering ---- I myself have tested several locations and shared with TSI — via email and a video conference ---- I am happily to share my conclusions tot he seasteading community — based on “gravity model” analysis — What is the status of the TSI Environmental Impact Analysis required buy the MOU? — It is now 6-plus months. A typical EIS takes 6-months at a cost of possibly $250,000. ---- What is the status? ---- I have already provided TSI the most cost effective locations in Polynesia ---- based on development economics ---- What is the status today? Ted
Larry G — I say the yacht club is not “feasible.” — Let me explain using a McDonald’s business plan analogy. (Sorry after the movie theater analogy — you may getting tired of this stuff.) Here is the elemental business plan for a sea stead based on McDonald’s. The burger is sold at cost. No profit. It costs $1.25 to produce and is sold for $1.25. The purpose of the burger is to “position” the restaurant as burger — not chicken or pizza. The menu includes french fries. This is the “add on.” The purpose of the french fries is to bulk up the total “cover” or cost os sales to the customer. The fires pay for the staff, utilities and rent. IT IS THE SODA! — The Coke costs $0.10 and sells for $1.00 ---- 90% profit. The sea stead business plan is the same. The yacht club is the “burger.” I t provides visiting and amenities for the residents — dinging, bar, spa, shop ---- One can not have a residential immunity without these — The Yacht Club is the burger — Here is an additional purpose for the lodging ---- Since it is 70% occupied at best — Rooms are given away to an “artist-in-residence” program — The vacant rooms are gifted to painters who come and live on site — At the end of their free residence there is an auction of their art work — 50% goes to the artist and 50% to the community. The artist-in-residence is a part of the “lifestyle” for the permanent resident. ---- IT smart people are just like artists — just a different metier! I hope at a point the seasteading community will come to realize I have actually though this through. I am failing to communicate what I know. Ted
[quote=“Matias, post:90, topic:2107”]Take McDonalds (or Starbucks) for instance whose biz model is colonizing the heat maps (! Gravity models) Amenta is talking about: do you believe they make more selling burgers or consolidating real estate?
As I’ve posted before, McDonald’s corporation is all about real estate and their choices in approving franchises are often actually inimical to the success of the franchisee (grad school case studies and personal inference).
I get the idea of a loss leader, anchor businesses and the soft drink analogy. I employed similar strategies in my own retail business in the past. @tamenta’s further explanation makes more clear what he was getting at.
To further the marina discussion, the marina can be profitable hosting a yacht club (which is often non-profit anyway) at cost and making their money off of transients at higher daily rates and services to individuals (mechanical, painting, fiberglass work, or even just providing captains services, lessons, and fluff).
It’s not a matter of not realizing the benefit of experience. It’s simply a matter of understanding and applying those concepts to a unique situation such as remote seasteads.
Why remote? TSI as you know has always embraced an evolutionary approach.
As a coastal development without a clear path to the open sea, or any remoteness caused by being floating, it should require the same expertise as a tropical seaside development.
Which usually have their own issues, are often remote from the source of the developer’s money, from resources, from their intended customer base, and from expertise.
Remote is relative. A seastead is not necessarily remote. But if it is not, what is the market differentiator?
Remoteness is relative. My own goal is within the continental shelf of North America, off the coast of Texas, in the Gulf of Mexico. Figure some 8-12 miles offshore, Lord only knows the additional distances to various routine services, such as medical, or grocery stores. Add that it is also restricted in other ways, not knowing in advance what other areas are restricted, for various reasons. The final position may be much further than 12 miles to a suitable port.
Very good question,
- quest for mobility
- interference freedom (as less remote as possible to achieve this)
How do these translate to business opportunities / consumer experieces ?
All three of those qualities are pretty much directly related to distance and inversely related to being close to existing markets.
Hamburger with fries and soda with a movie, sounds like a date. I am getting to like this seasteading stuff.
The whole point of floating a seaworthy habitat is to seek the benefits of mobility, interference freedom, innovation anywhere on planet Earth without having to be remote or particular.
Sure, and we’re subverting the dominant paradigm as an autonomous collective. But buzzwords don’t pay for pouring concrete.
Some people use the analogy of chess to many part of life.
I am not good at chess. The first questions good chess players
asked me about playing chess is; what is your opening move?
Before Netflix; I had an idea similar to Netflix. I started working on it.
It did not work out. Netflix is successful.
I called my business idea DigiMovies.
DigiMovies had an investment capital of 5thousand USD.
Netflix had an initial investment of 50million USD.
A few years ago, I checked Netflix, it had 1million subscribers
20USD / month. That is 20million USD / month for Netflix.
Good for Netflix.